The United Nations on Tuesday warned the world to prepare for the effects of El Nino, saying the weather phenomenon that causes higher global temperatures is set to continue throughout 2023.
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern that is usually associated with increased global temperatures, as well as droughts in some parts of the world and heavy rains elsewhere.
The event occurs on average every two to seven years, and episodes usually last nine to 12 months.
The UN’s World Meteorological Organization has declared that El Nino has begun and said there is a 90-percent chance that it will continue into the second half of 2023.
“The onset of El Nino will greatly increase the possibility of breaking temperature records and cause more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the oceans,” warned WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas.
“The declaration of an El Nino by the WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilize preparations to limit the effects on our health, our ecosystems and our economies,” said Taalas.
“Early warnings and anticipatory action in severe weather events associated with this major climate event are essential to save lives and livelihoods.”
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which feeds the WMO, announced on June 8 that El Nino had arrived.
“It is expected to be at least moderately strong,” the WMO said.
It noted that the warming effect of El Nino on global temperatures is usually felt strongest within a year of its onset – in this case 2024.
Triple-dip La Nina
El Nino is a large temperature increase over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Conditions fluctuate between El Nino and the generally cooling opposite of La Nina, with neutral conditions in between.
El Nino events are usually associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
It can also cause severe drought in Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia, Central America and northern South America.
The WMO says that the last El Nino was in 2015-2016.
From 2020 to early 2023, the world was affected by an unusually long-lasting La Nina, which lasted for three consecutive years.
This is the first so-called triple-dip La Nina of the 21st century and only the third since 1950.
The cooling effect of La Nina has put a temporary brake on rising global temperatures, although the past eight-year period was the warmest on record.
Record predictions
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the WMO’s head of regional climate forecasting services, said that in the next six months, “there is a 10-percent chance that El Nino will weaken”.
“So we can rule out the development of La Nina this year,” he told reporters.
“The effect of El Nino is usually viewed as a time lag,” he added, with a view to global temperatures still increasing.
In May, the WMO predicted a 98-percent probability that at least one of the next five years—and the five-year period as a whole—will be the warmest on record.
So far the hottest year on record was 2016, when there was an unusually strong El Nino, coupled with human warming from greenhouse gas emissions.
The World Health Organization of the UN says it is helping countries prepare for the impact of El Nino, through pre-positioning stocks.
“In many countries that will be most affected by El Nino, there are ongoing crises,” warned Maria Neira, the environment, climate change and health director of the WHO.
The UN health agency is particularly concerned about the likely increase in cholera, mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria, and infectious diseases such as measles and meningitis.
Extreme heat, forest fires and increased food insecurity leading to more severe malnutrition are also causes for concern, he said.
© 2023 AFP
Citation: UN warns world to prepare for El Nino impact (2023, July 4) retrieved 4 July 2023 from https://phys.org/news/2023-07-world-el-nino-impact .html
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