Researchers led by Hong Kong Baptist University (HKBU) developed a statistical model that uses spring warming patterns in the western Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean and Ross Sea to predict the frequency of summer co-occurrence of heat waves and air pollution in China.
The model provides useful information for government authorities and the general public to take advanced actions to reduce damage from joint hazards. The results of the research were published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
Heat wave and air pollution together are becoming more frequent
The issue of global warming has again attracted intense attention recently as the world registered the hottest day so far for the third time in the first week of July this year, with the daily average temperature reaching a record-breaking 17.23 °C. Heat waves are widely reported in the northern atmosphere covering countries and regions in Asia, Africa, Europe and North America.
Hot sunny days can go hand in hand with air pollution as ozone formation increases with rising temperatures. Exposure to simultaneous extreme heat events and air pollution is likely to cause additional damage to human health and ecosystems. However, understanding their joint phenomenon has not been given much attention.
A research group led by Professor Gao Meng, Professor of the Department of Geography at HKBU, and Dr. Wang Zifa, Researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, analyzed the spatial distribution and temporal changes of combined heat wave and ozone pollution events in China in the summer between 2005 to 2021.
“We observed that ozone pollution and heat waves have become more severe and frequent in the North China Plain. This area contains some of China’s most densely populated cities and provinces such as Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui and Jiangsu. More than 80% of co-occurrences during the heat of 2002 days,” said Dr.
Effects of ocean warming on heat waves and ozone pollution
Using empirical orthogonal function analysis, a tool commonly used in climate studies, researchers discovered that the warming patterns of the western Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean and Ross Sea (a deep bay in the Southern Ocean in Antarctica) in the spring are related to the frequency of co-occurrence of heat wave and ozone pollution events.
The research team concluded that sea surface temperature anomalies in the three oceans concerned in spring affect air pressure, air movement, precipitation and land radiation, which are the main causes of the occurrence of heat and air pollution in the North China Plain in summer.
Statistical modeling can make early predictions
Based on these findings, the research team developed a change-based statistical model using spring sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific Ocean, western Indian Ocean and Ross Sea to predict the potential co-occurrence of heat waves and ozone pollution in China in summer. This allows a period or several months in advance for government authorities and the public to act.
“If the forecasts suggest that the heat wave and ozone pollution will be more severe in the coming summer months, the relevant government authorities can issue warnings and take measures to help so that agriculture or other related sectors, as well as communities sensitive to these extremes, can act to minimize the negative effects. .
Going forward, the research team hopes to develop a statistical model that can predict the co-occurrence of heat wave and air pollution events up to several years in advance. This will further improve the country’s ability to manage the associated risks.
More information:
Meng Gao et al, Large-scale climate patterns offer preseasonal clues to the co-occurrence of heat waves and O 3 pollution in China, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2023). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2218274120
Provided by Hong Kong Baptist University
Citation: Researchers build model to predict frequency of heat wave and air pollution together in China (2023, July 24) retrieved on July 24, 2023 from https://phys.org/news/2023-07-frequency-air-pollution-co-occurrence-china.html
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