A group of economists and engineers from China, Turkey and Nigeria published a proposal based on simulations to build a sub-Saharan African electrical grid in 12 countries. In their paper published in the journal Scientific reportsthe group outlines which countries will be included, materials that will be used to create the grid, and estimated costs.
Africa’s unique history and natural geography and resources have led to the conditions that exist today—a large, overpopulated continent, with many people living in poverty. Prior research suggests that one of the factors holding back development in many African countries is lack of access to electricity. In this new effort, the research team looked at the factors involved in building an electrical grid in 12 countries.
The proposed grid will cross the northern part of the continent, horizontally, then move south near the East Coast, including countries as far as South Africa. Among the countries are South Africa, Mozambique, Burundi, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Sudan, Chad, Nigeria, Niger and Mali. To make estimates of the costs associated with the creation of that grid, the team first considered several scenarios involving methods of producing electricity based on the types of renewable resources, versus using as much as possible of the coal-fired plants that are currently available.
The team then entered all the relevant data into the EnergyPLAN simulator—a system first developed in 2000 and which has been updated and used for many projects in Africa. The team also gave the simulator a timetable for the implementation of the grid—in 2030 or 2040.
Based on the simulations, the researchers found that the total electricity demand for the grid will be approximately 700 TWh/yr for 2030 and 800 TWh/yr for 2040. They noted that the hourly demand of the grid ranges from 40 to 120 GW. The system also shows costs ranging from approximately half a trillion dollars to under 3 trillion.
The researchers suggest that their simulation could be used for a larger project by entities, such as China, that are active in smaller projects in Africa. They also noted that such a project would not only improve the lives of people living in Africa, but could ultimately result in a huge return on investment as new African regions become business or trade partners.
More information:
Mustapha Mukhtar et al, Juxtaposing Sub-Sahara Africa’s energy poverty and renewable energy potential, Scientific reports (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-38642-4
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